Climate risk in Europe, place by place

The mean of the three hazards on Europe's spread, 0 to 100: 100 is among the least exposed on all three. Our 46 cities and regions always show; they have no single population figure.

1. 1
   Devoll

   Town · Albania · 26,716 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 0.2% · Flood 0%

   100/100
2. 2
   Bad Rappenau

   Town · Germany · 22,728 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 0.6% · Flood 0%

   100/100
3. 3
   Mikkeli

   City · Finland · 52,000 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 1% · Flood 0%

   100/100
4. 4
   Accrington

   Town · United Kingdom · 35,456 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 1.8% · Flood 0%

   100/100
5. 5
   Sinsheim

   Town · Germany · 37,105 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 2% · Flood 0%

   100/100
6. 6
   Leimen

   Town · Germany · 26,815 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 2.2% · Flood 0%

   100/100
7. 7
   Wiesloch

   Town · Germany · 27,911 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 2.4% · Flood 0%

   100/100
8. 8
   Vaasa

   City · Finland · 68,000 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 2% · Flood 0.6%

   100/100
9. 9
   Isernia

   Town · Italy · 20,617 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 3% · Flood 0%

   100/100
10. 10
    Nelson

    Town · United Kingdom · 33,488 people · Burnt 0% · Drought 3.2% · Flood 0%

    100/100

How it is measured

Each figure is measured around the place by a public body and published under an open licence. They describe what has happened and where the water would reach, not a forecast; only the hot days are a projection. Lower is less exposed.

• Wildfire: share of the area within 5 km of the place burnt at least once in 2016–2025 (EFFIS burnt-area perimeters: fires of about 30 ha and more, mapped from satellite imagery; small fires are missed). EFFIS, 2016–2025.
• Drought: share of the ten-day periods of 2012–2025 in which the place's ~5 km cell (or, on the coast, the nearest land cell) was in drought warning or alert: soil moisture short or vegetation stressed (EDO Combined Drought Indicator 4.1). EDO, 2012–2025.
• River flood: share of the area within 1 km of the place that a 1-in-100-year river flood would cover (JRC river flood hazard map for Europe, 100 m, modelled along 329,000 km of rivers; coastal, flash and surface-water floods are not in it). JRC flood maps, 2020.
• Extra hot days by 2035: each model's change in monthly mean daily maximum, 2030–2039 minus 2015–2024, added to NASA POWER's measured daily maxima (2020–2024); days ≥ 30 °C a year counted again, minus today's count; median of 10 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 at the area's point (bilinear on each model's grid). CMIP6 ensemble via Copernicus CDS + NASA POWER (MERRA-2), 2030–2039 vs 2015–2024.

Drought here counts spells drier than the place's own normal, so Seville (18%) reads less drought than Brussels (30%): read it as how often a place's water runs short against what it is used to.

Sources & Methodology

Use the data

The whole table, one row per place with every figure above and the link to its report, free to reuse under CC BY 4.0. Credit “Where Tomorrow, from EFFIS, EDO, JRC and CMIP6 data”.

At a glance

Places of 20,000 people or more, and our 46 cities and regions.